Saturday, December 31, 2011

Weekly Wager: Week 17

For the season, Weekly Wager is 30-21 with 2 pushes. 8-8 on college games, 22-13-2 in NFL. Keep an eye out this weekend for a special Weekly Wager: BCS edition. With that said, here are the picks for this week:

Washington
@ Philadelphia (-8.5) - SUN 1:00PM - FOX
Has anyone noticed that the calls for Andy Reid's head have gotten much quieter? I think the Eagles finish the season at 8-8 with a win at home against the 'Skins on Sunday. While the Eagles haven't played their best ball at home, going 2-5 on the season, I expect LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick to lead the Eagles to victory. The Eagles are 7-8 ATS this year and only cover when they win. I expect this game to continue the trend in sloppy fashion - Eagles are tied for the most turnovers on the season with 36 and the 'Skins are third with 34. Look out for the Eagles next year, they will have a chip on their shoulder all season...Philadelphia 31, Washington 17

Carolina @ New Orleans (-8.0) - SUN 1:00PM - FOX
This one is a bit risky because Sean Payton could pack it in early, but I think the Saints get their eight straight win in convincing fashion as they fight for the #2 seed in the NFC and try to make sure Brees stays ahead of Brady in setting a new record for most passing yards in a season. Payton may see the #2 seed slipping away during the game depending the score of the 49ers game, but I think Brees will play long enough to make sure he's beat out Brady for the record. While Cam Newton has had a ridiculous season and exceeded almost everyone's expectations, the Panthers defense doesn't have a chance against the Saints offense on turf and in a dome. The Saints have won ATS in each of their last seven games and are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 on turf. Look for the Saints to put up +40 points for the third straight game...New Orleans 41, Carolina 28

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (+6.5) - SUN 4:15PM - CBS
Look for Big Ben to return and lead the Steelers to a comfortable victory over the Browns. With a W and a Ravens loss, the Steelers would enjoy a bye in the first round of playoffs. While the Browns' record doesn't show it, they have been playing teams close and were it not for a late 79-yard touchdown against the Steelers last time around, the game would have ended as a 7-3 loss. This might lead some bettors to take Cleveland, but the last matchup caused the Steelers some trouble with Big Ben's ankle sprain taking him out of the game for part of the 2nd quarter and returning with mediocre play in the 2nd half. If Roethlisberger can't go, Charlie Batch has proven he can win as a starter who is now 5-2 as the Steelers' starting QB. The Steelers should win by a TD and get their 3rd 12-win season in four years...Pittsburgh 17, Cleveland 10

Dallas @ New York Giants (-2.5) - SUN 8:20PM - NBC
This one makes me a little nervous because I know Tom Coughlin has struggled in getting his players to come out fired up for big games, but I think this team has learned its lesson after getting caught flat footed against the 'Skins a few weeks back. I expect the Giants to go 3-0 against the Ryan brothers this year after beating the bigger mouthed Ryan last week in the battle of NY. While the 'Boys defense stacks up well against the weak Giants running game, the secondary is one of the worst in the league and should get torched by Eli and Company. NBC finally got it right by putting the best game of the week on Sunday night ...New York Giants 31, Dallas 28

Friday, December 16, 2011

Weekly Wager: Week 15

For the season, Weekly Wager is 29-19 in total. 8-8 on college games, 21-11 in NFL. We'll pick back up with the college next week once the bowl games are underway. With that said, here are the picks for this week:

Cincinnati @ St. Louis (+7.0) - SUN 1:00PM - CBS
It might be too little too late, but my money is on Andy Dalton leading the Bengals back to victory and keeping hopes of landing the last wild card spot in the AFC alive. Cincy's defense has struggled as of late giving up atleast 20 points in each of the last 5 games, but I place little weight on that given St. Louis is dead last in points scored per game at 11.8. Cincinnati is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, while St. Louis has failed to cover in 14 of their last 17. The Bengals win this one in convincing fashion and keep their playoff hopes alive for one more week...Cincinnati 24, St. Louis 14

Carolina @ Houston (-6.0) - SUN 1:00PM - FOX
These two teams couldn't be coming off more different outcomes this past weekend. Ultimately, with Houston's defense giving up just 16ppg, I think this match-up strongly favors Houston. Cam Newton and Co. continue to put up points and come up short, while TJ Yates just finds a way to win. Like I've said before, offense sells tickets, defense wins championships. A top 10 offense has resulted in a 4-9 record for Carolina, while a top 10 defense has produced a 10-3 team in Houston. Despite Wade Phillips being away from the team this coming Sunday, I think the Texans keep the wins coming and cover...Carolina 17, Houston 28

New Orleans @ Minnesota (+7.0) - SUN 1:00PM - FOX
It appears Adrian Peterson will play after nursing his high ankle sprain for weeks, but I don't see it changing the outcome. The Saints will be back indoors on turf and should light up the Vikings defense, which is ranked 26th against the pass giving up 249ypg. After a slow start in Tennessee, I expect the Saints to once again look like the team that is averaging almost 32ppg against a flailing team in the midst of a 5-game losing streak. The Saints know they can clinch the division with a win and an Atlanta loss. Given the team's struggles on the road, I expect Drew Brees to get the troops up for this one and handle their business resulting in atleast one home game in the playoffs...New Orleans 34, Minnesota 21

Detroit @ Oakland (+1.0) - SUN 4:05PM - FOX
After Carson Palmer's 4 INTs against Green Bay's subpar defense last week, I have no faith in Oakland. I fully expect Carson to improve on his terrible performance, but I also expect Matt Stafford to continue winning without much production from Megatron. In the last 10 games, the Lions are 5-5 and have lost each time they failed to score more than 20 points. With the Raiders' defense allowing 27ppg, I'm feeling confident the Lions score their points and take this one. The Lions should also get a boost from Ndamukong Suh who returns from his 2 games suspension on Sunday...Detroit 38, Oakland 24

Baltimore @ San Diego (+2.0) - SUN 8:20PM - NBC
The Chargers seem to be gaining momentum after a pair of wins over Buffalo and Jacksonville, but I think that comes to an end Sunday night. The Ravens defense is simply too good for Phillip Rivers and team. Look for this game to be a building block for Joe Flacco who has been struggling a bit of late. The Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games and likely to be 2-7 after Sunday....Baltimore 24, San Diego 20

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Week 14 One Liners

Browns defense stopped Steelers run 4 times at 1 yd line

Packers have not trailed in the 4th quarter in 19 Consecutive games...just another stat for the record books.

Jets call timeout before their first snap at the start of the game, and went on to score a TD on their first possession.  

Charles Tillman INT, great job at getting both feet down inbounds. Props

Ryan Succop managed to achieve the shortest kickoff of the year at just 3.5 yards during a horrible attempt at an onside kick

New England got some good practice against good Rexy this week. They barely squeezed by to win 34-27.  May God be with the better team when they meet Tim Tebow and the Broncos this Sunday.

Julius Peppers blocks Prater FG. Broncos get 0 from a 60 yd drive.  This effort proves to be futil once Marion Barber stepped onto the field.  

Texans stage a comeback against the Bengals to clinch AFC South, their first playoff appearance in history of the franchise.

Bears fans still don't understand how they lost to The Broncos Tim Tebow on Sunday. I don't get it either.  Divine intervention or glitch in the matrix?

Scrub time for the Packers started with 2 min left in the 3rd qtr when Aaron Rodgers was pulled out of game. Packers make other NFL teams look like they're playing college level

Tom Coughlin pulled a Jason Garrett Sunday night for a Giants W. Icing Dan Bailey still works like a charm. Giants remain undefeated (3-0) in Cowboy stadium.

Jason Pierre-Paul is a beast. Not too good in after the game interviews though. Its ok, interviews aren't what they pay him for.  Pretty sure Chris Collinsworth would've made sweet love to JPP after Giants / Cowboys if given the chance.

A little confused by the trickery on seattle offense (half back option pass on 2nd & 1). You don't need any trickery when you're playing the Rams.

Enough with the Tony Romo talk. The Cowboys aren't winning because Rob Ryan is an overrated defensive coordinator with a terrible secondary.

Eli Manning is doing the most with the least

After throwing 3 INTs in each of his first two games back, Carson Palmer should be well beyond throwing 4 INTs in one game, let alone against a weak secondary in Green Bay.

Friday, December 9, 2011

Weekly Wager: Week 14

For the season, Weekly Wager is 26-17 in total. 8-8 on college games, 18-9 in NFL. We'll be sticking with NFL games from here on out until the bowl games. With that said, here are the picks for this week:

Atlanta @ Carolina (+3.0) - SUN 1:00PM - FOX
Don’t expect this game to play out like October’s matchup, which Atlanta won 31-17 thanks to Michael Turner’s 139 yards and 2 TDs in addition to Cam Newton’s 3 INTs. Carolina’s offense is now ranked 8th in passing, 5th in rushing, 8th in scoring and is feeling good with back-to-back wins. Meanwhile, Matty Ice struggles to deliver consistently and this game is a must-win if the Falcons have any plans of playing in January. I expect Matt Ryan to pick up his fourth straight win against Carolina and Michael Turner to improve on his 109ypg average and 11 TDs in the teams' last six meetings...Atlanta 27, Carolina 21

New England @ Washington (+8.0) - SUN 1:00PM - FOX
New England can clinch their third straight division title with a win on Sunday and a loss by the Jets. A win would also mark the 9th straight season with 10 wins, which will be a league best now that the Colts’ streak has come to an end. To make things worse for the ‘Skins, the Pats aren’t happy with last week’s win against the Colts. They got off to a slow start on offense and saw their defense struggle (against one of the league's worst offenses) towards the end of the game. I don’t see the Pats having any problem this week as Rex Grossman and the 'Skins simply cannot keep up with the Pats' scoring. Even if the ‘Skins thought they had a chance, that has likely changed after the 4 game suspensions TE Fred Davis and Trent Williams face as part of violating the league's substance abuse policy. I wonder if Mike Shanahan has decided whether he’s going to fire his son at the end of the year or bite the bullet himself...New England 28, Washington 17

New Orleans @ Tennessee (+3.5) - SUN 1:00PM - CBS
Chris Johnson is playing well, but Drew Brees is playing better. The Saints are hitting their stride at the right time and are looking for their fifth straight win this weekend in Tennessee. Look for Brees to use Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham to take advantage of Tennessee’s relatively slow and weaker-than-average defense, while Chris Johnson will work towards his fourth consecutive 100 yard game. It’s worth noting the Saints are just 3-2 on the road this season, but I’m putting my money on the Saints understanding the importance of that first round bye in the playoffs given last year’s trip to Seattle...New Orleans 31, Tennessee 21

San Francisco @ Arizona (+3.5) - SUN 4:05PM - FOX
I’m still trying to figure out what the Vegas odds-makers are thinking here. Arizona does not have a prayer against SF this week. Even though Arizona came up big with a win against Dallas last week, there’s no chance Jim Harbaugh will let his team come in flat after clinching a playoff spot last week. San Fran is still fighting for a first round bye and home field advantage in the playoffs. Look for the 49ers to cover with another impressive showing on defense...and you can be sure that Harbaugh won't be icing David Akers in Arizona...San Francisco 24, Arizona 10

New York Giants @ Dallas (-3.5) - SUN 8:20PM - NBC
Last week’s loss to the Packers is reminiscent of the Giant’s loss to the Patriots in the final regular season game of ’07. We all know that was the turning point for the G-Men in ’07, who eventually went on to upset one team after another in the playoffs before ending the Pats not so "perfect season" in the Super Bowl. The line on this one opened with the Giants as a 4 point underdog, but has since moved slightly with 88% of the money in Vegas taking the Giants ATS. This always concerns me, but I think the Giants are feeling confident and recognize if they beat the ‘Boys in their upcoming two matchups, they are headed to the playoffs. Look for Eli to make Nicks and Cruz shine and move the G-Men into a first place tie in the NFC East...New York Giants 27, Dallas 23