Sunday, January 22, 2012

Weekly Wager: AFC & NFC Championship Picks

For the season, Weekly Wager is 40-27-3. 10-10-1 on college games, 30-17-2 in NFL. With that said, see below for this week's picks:

Baltimore @ New England (-7.0) - SUN 3:00PM - CBS
Much like last week's Saints vs Niners matchup, this is going to be a game between a top offense and a top defense. Ravens fans better hope Joe Flacco took some notes on Alex Smith's performance, because much like Smith, Flacco will be the difference. Ray Rice shouldn't have a tough time on the ground against a defense that gives up alomst 120ypg, so it comes down to Flacco's ability to spread the ball and throw for a few hundred yards. Tom Brady had an impressive outing last week, but when a QB of his caliber does not get sacked and is only hit twice on 34 drop backs, what do you expect? Look for the Ravens defense to get to Brady and rattle the Golden Boy. Baltimore's defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano is well aware of the threat Gronkowski and Hernandez pose, but he knows his squad needs to stay focused on Brady's safety net, Wes Welker. Something tells me if Ricky Williams is talking about hitting the Pats in the mouth, the Ravens are hungry and ready for this game. Just another badass Harbaugh doing his job. Don't forget the Ravens smoked the Pats 33-14 in Foxboro in the playoffs two years ago. I'm taking Baltimore to cover and think they pull out the upset. Don't feel bad for the Golden Boy, I'm sure he'll enjoy the off-season in his new mega mansion...Baltimore 27, New England 24

New York Giants @ San Francisco (-2.0) - SUN 6:30PM - FOX
The Giants, aka the "Road Warriors," are the most balanced team left in the playoffs and my favorite to win it all. Alex Smith seemed to have erased all the negativity of the past 6 years with last week's comeback win. Good for him, but it's back to reality this week. If the weather is as bad as expected, it's probably an advantage for the Niners who have one of the best running games in the league. However, the Giants defense is playing lights out right now and I don't see that changing. The Niners defense has been great all year and last week's win was awesome, but let's be clear, they gave up 32 points to the Saints on grass, outdoors. Eli(te) is playing the best football of his life right now and his players believe in him more than ever. The running game is coming around, Hakeem Nicks is back to his old self, and Victor Cruz is the cherry on top. What Jim Harbaugh has done in his first year as a head coach in the NFL is beyond impressive, but Coughlin's players have bought into his message and he's on the cusp of going down as the best coach in New York Football Giants history. I'm taking the Giants, who are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games, to win on the road once again....New York Giants 24, San Francisco 20

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Weekly Wager: Divisional Playoffs

For the season, Weekly Wager is 36-27-3. 10-10-1 on college games, 26-17-2 in NFL. With that said, see below for this week's picks:

New Orleans @ San Francisco (+3.5) - SAT 4:30PM - FOX
As everyone knows by now, this is a game between a top offense and a top defense. The Saints average just under 35ppg while San Fran is allowing less than 15ppg. The Saints are a different ball club on grass. The last time they played outdoors on grass was against Tennessee and they struggled against an average team at best (won 22-17). While the Saints offense has been on a roll as of late, averaging 45ppg in their last 3 games, I don't trust their defense and their split personality outside of the dome. Alex Smith isn't one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but he's efficient completing better than 60% of his passes with only 5 INTs. Don't forget the Saints give up 5 yards per carry, so Alex Smith doesn't have to be an All-Pro to beat New Orleans. San Fran is 7-0-1 ATS at home, while the Saints are 4-4 ATS on the road. This is the first time in 15 years the home team in this round of the playoffs has been an underdog. I know Brees has a chip on his shoulder from last year, but Harbaugh has something special brewing in the Bay area. If San Fran doesn't win this game, I expect them to cover...New Orleans 24, San Francisco 27

Denver @ New England (-13.5) - SAT 8:00PM - CBS
Sorry folks, Tebowmania will be coming to an end today. Last week's performance by Tim Tebow was All-World and the kind of stuff legends are made of, but he is not going into Foxboro and beating the Patriots. I understand the Steelers are one of the top defenses in the league and the Pats have one of the worst defensive squads giving up 411ypg and a league worst 294ypg in the air, but the element of surprise is gone. The only prayer Denver has rests on the shoulders of their defense. The key for Denver will be for Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller to pressure Tom Brady. Denver has kept 6 of their last 11 opponents to 15 points or less, but as we saw in their last matchup at Mile High Stadium, Mr. Brady found a way to shred Denver's defense and will do so again. It also doesn't hurt the Pats will have Josh McDaniels back on their side. The Patriots will be prepared for the gimmicks and will move on to the next round...Denver 24, New England 38

Houston @ Baltimore (-7.5) - SUN 1:00PM - CBS
The pressure is on Joe Flacco. The Ravens could easily end up in the Super Bowl or lose this weekend. This is an incredibly balanced match up with both teams averaging 24ppg and defenses that are each giving up just under 290ypg and 17ppg. The Texans came out last week and impressed. TJ Yates has been good enough to win thanks to the second best running game in the league led by Arian Foster and the best overall defense in the league. However, they have to travel to Baltimore where the Ravens are 8-0 at home and rookie QBs don't typically fair so well. Flacco has averaged 239 passing yards and thrown for 15 TDs versus 6 INTs in the team's 12 wins, while averaging 200 yards passing and throwing just 5 TDs versus 6 INTs in their four losses. The Ravens have Ray Rice and the third best defense in the league, but Flacco needs to step up if Baltimore wants to keep this thing going. Baltimore is a different team at home and will likely win, but Houston keeps it close and covers...Houston 17, Baltimore 21

New York Giants
@ Green Bay (-7.5) - SUN 4:30PM - FOX
The Giants displayed a lot of confidence this week in the media, which only adds to Green Bay's motivation after the shocking and sudden death of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin's son, Michael Philbin. Greg Jennings also made it clear after the Giants win over the Falcons via Twitter that the Packers haven't forgotten about their playoff loss at home to the Giants in January '08. However, the Giants know they should have won against the Packers earlier this year, and they know they are one of the best teams in football right now. The Giants defensive and offensive lines are playing extremely well, which is contributing to tons of pressure on opposing QBs and the ability to run the ball on offense. Aaron Rodgers has had only one game to show what he's made of since losing to KC, but it was against an emotionally defeated Chicago Bears team. Rodgers will appreciate having Greg Jennings back in the lineup, but he will have his day cut out for him as the Giants' defensive line will cause havoc. I'm confident the Packers Achilles' heel will be their defense. The Giants' running game is dead last in the league, but when they run for over 100yds, they win. Aaron Rodgers might be the AP Athlete of the Year, but Eli(te) Manning is 'trending' and I like his chances against the worst defense in the league...New York Giants 38, Green Bay 35

Monday, January 9, 2012

Weekly Wager: BCS Championship

For the season, Weekly Wager is 35-27-3. 9-10-1 on college games, 26-17-2 in NFL. With that said, see below for our final college football pick of the season:

BCS Championship: Alabama @ LSU (+2.5) - Jan 9 @ 8:30PM - ESPN
The NCAA really needs to step in and do something about the ridiculous gap between the final regular season game and the BCS Championship. We're in the second week of January and have heard all about the players and the crazy stats these teams have put up, so I'll keep it short. Les Miles has more to lose (millions of dollars) than Nick Saban, but I don't think Saban lets his team lose twice to LSU. Despite having the number one defense in Alabama (8.8ppg / 191ypg) up against the number two defense in LSU (10.5ppg / 252ypg), I expect this game to be much different than the 9-6 game on November 5th and cover the Over (41.5). I think the long gap since each team's last game will benefit the offenses, which should take advantage of defenses that are a step slow. Alabama won't need to rely on the kicking game as much and ultimately covers...Alabama 24, LSU 20

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Weekly Wager: Wild Card Weekend

For the season, Weekly Wager is 34-24-3. We're 9-10-1 on college games and 25-14-2 on pro games. With that said, here are the picks for this week:

Cincinnati @ Houston (-4.0) - SAT 4:30PM - NBC
It's a weird year in Cincy, which starts with Mike Brown looking like a decent GM. Cincy essentially made the playoffs without an upset win all season and struggled mightily in close games. However, I think they win their first big game all season on Wild Card Weekend. The Bengals have two things going for them; they have the confidence they can beat Houston after a last second defeat in Week 14, and Andy Dalton is going up against another rookie QB. It's worth noting Dalton missed some practice this week because of the flu, but the coaches are saying he's up to speed and it's a non-issue. Cincy wins in a close game as Andy Dalton and AJ Green have solid performances in their first nationally televised game...Cincinnati 24, Houston 20

Detroit @ New Orleans (-10.5) - SAT 8:00PM - NBC
Detroit has improved since their 31-17 loss at the Superdome on December 4th and they're healthier now, but it won't be enough to beat the Saints. The Lions have enough firepower to stay close with the Saints' offense, but Drew Brees is simply too good for the Lions' defense, which made Matt Flynn look like an All-Pro last week. The Saints have won 8 straight, scored over 40 points in their last 3, and haven't loss at home since last season. This should be the best game of the weekend. The Saints have covered in 8 straight, but I think Detroit covers here in a solid effort against my Super Bowl favorite...Detroit 34, New Orleans 42

Atlanta @ New York Giants (-3.0) - SUN 1:00PM - FOX
The Giants are feeling good right now and I expect that continue into next weekend. Victor Cruz has stepped up in a big way and his play has led to increased confidence for the entire squad. The Giants offensive line has started to come together which should help the 32nd ranked running game when they need it most; The Giants are 7-0 when they rush for over 100 yards. The Falcons have been an inconsistent team this year and are 4-4 on the road. The Roddy White-Julio Jones combo should be concerning for Giants fans, but I think the best defensive line in the league prevents Matt Ryan from getting the time he needs for big plays. As in '07, the Giants hit the playoffs with some momentum after losing a close and winnable game to the 'best' team in the league. Don't be surprised if the Giants make it to Indy...Atlanta 27, New York Giants 31

Pittsburgh @ Denver (+8.0) - SUN 4:30PM - CBS
Despite all the injuries (coaches included) around the Steelers over the last couple weeks, I expect them to handle Denver with ease. Denver will likely throw in some gimmicks on offense (Brady Quinn), as Tim Tebow doesn't have a prayer of beating the top ranked defense in the league doing what he's been doing recently. Big Ben has played with injuries his whole career and shouldn't have a problem doing it again. I think Issac Redman will have a bigger game than people are expecting, while Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown should continue their strong seasons into atleast the second round of the playoffs. Pittsburgh covers in a game that's probably not as close as the final score indicates...Pittsburgh 21, Denver 10

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Weekly Wager: BCS Edition Part II

For the season, Weekly Wager is 34-23 with 2 pushes. 9-9 on college games, 25-14-2 in NFL. See below for our special Weekly Wager BCS edition Part II:

Sugar Bowl: Michigan @ Virginia Tech (+3.0) - Jan 3 @ 8:30PM - ESPN
Unfortunately, this year's Sugar Bowl will likely take the Big Ten to 0-2 in BCS games and lead to another year of skepticism around the entire conference next season. After receiving a butt whooping from Clemson in which Hokies star running back and ACC player of the year David Wilson had just 32 yards on 11 carries, Va Tech has a lot to prove. The Hokies' defense, which ranks 8th in the nation allowing just 17.8ppg, will be focused on making Denard Robinson a pocket passer. Robinson has big-play ability on the ground, but he is inconsistent as a passer completing just 56% of his passes and throwing 14 INTs on the year. I expect David Wilson to have a big game and solidify his case for going pro a year early...Michigan 27, Virgina Tech 28

Orange Bowl: West Virginia @ Clemson (-3.0) - Jan 4 @ 8:30PM - ESPN
I'm betting Clemson has regained some of the swagger they had earlier this year after winning their first ACC title in over 20 years. West Virginia averages 35ppg behind one of the best passers in the country in Geno Smith who threw for 463 yards against LSU earlier this year. While Geno is the real deal, the same can't be said for the West Virginia team who's record is largely a result of a weak schedule in a weak conference. Clemson has begun to right the ship, and after holding Virginia Tech to just 13 total points in two games, people are taking notice. Look for Clemson's Sammy Watkins, who is only the third true freshman in NCAA history to win first team All-American honors, to have his national coming out party and light up the Mountaineers' secondary...West Virginia 24, Clemson 31

Monday, January 2, 2012

Weekly Wager: BCS Edition Part I

For the season, Weekly Wager is 33-22 with 2 pushes. 8-8 on college games, 25-14-2 in NFL. As promised, see below for Part I of our special Weekly Wager BCS Edition:

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin
@ Oregon (-6.0) - Jan 2 @ 5:00PM - ESPN
On paper, this is a phenomenal matchup. Oregon is averaging 46ppg and 515ypg versus Wisconsin's 45ppg and 467ypg. Russell Wilson has been phenomenal this year with 31 TDs and just 3 INTs, while Darron Thomas is not far behind with 30 TD passes and just 6 INTs. The Ducks biggest challenge will be stopping Montee Ball who has an NCAA best 1,759 yards rushing and 32 rushing TDs behind a massive offensive line that could pose problems for the Ducks. LeMichael James has rushed for just 113 yards less than Montee Ball in two less games. The Ducks defense, which ranks 45th against the run, has only allowed 12 rushing TDs in 13 games. The Badger defense surprisingly ranks 6th in the nation giving up 17ppg, but it won't be enough in this year's Rose Bowl. After losing two straight BCS bowl games, I think Oregon's offense is too good for Wisconsin's defense and ultimately leads them to their first BCS bowl victory under Chip Kelly...Wisconsin 41, Oregon 49

Fiesta Bowl: Stanford @ Oklahoma State (-4.0) - Jan 2 @ 8:30PM - ESPN
As long as Mike Gundy has Oklahoma State focused on this game, and not grumbling about missing out on a shot at the title, I expect Oklahoma State to handle Stanford with relative ease. The Cowboys season will likely most be remembered by the double-overtime loss to Iowa State, which ultimately prevented them from getting to the BCS championship. Brandon Weeden has led a high octane offense completing over 73% of his passes and throwing for over 4,300 yards. He's had the good fortune of throwing to Justin Blackmon who has over 3,000 yards receiving and 35 TDs over the last two seasons, but the Cowboys also have a solid running game led by Joseph Randle (1193 yds rushing and 23 rushing TDs). Andrew Luck has had an impressive career and will likely be the number 1 pick in the upcoming NFL draft, but his team simply isn't good enough to beat the elite teams. In matchups against USC and Oregon, Stanford gave up an average 50.5 ppg. Stanford finished the year 2-1 against Top 25 teams, while Oklahoma State went 4-0 against Top 25 opponents, including an impressive beat down of the Sooners after their loss at Iowa State. It will be a high scoring affair in which Oklahoma State ultimately increases the cries for a college football playoff system...Stanford 41, Oklahoma State 52