For the season, Weekly Wager is 36-27-3. 10-10-1 on college games, 26-17-2 in NFL. With that said, see below for this week's picks:
New Orleans @ San Francisco (+3.5) - SAT 4:30PM - FOX
As everyone knows by now, this is a game between a top offense and a top defense. The Saints average just under 35ppg while San Fran is allowing less than 15ppg. The Saints are a different ball club on grass. The last time they played outdoors on grass was against Tennessee and they struggled against an average team at best (won 22-17). While the Saints offense has been on a roll as of late, averaging 45ppg in their last 3 games, I don't trust their defense and their split personality outside of the dome. Alex Smith isn't one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but he's efficient completing better than 60% of his passes with only 5 INTs. Don't forget the Saints give up 5 yards per carry, so Alex Smith doesn't have to be an All-Pro to beat New Orleans. San Fran is 7-0-1 ATS at home, while the Saints are 4-4 ATS on the road. This is the first time in 15 years the home team in this round of the playoffs has been an underdog. I know Brees has a chip on his shoulder from last year, but Harbaugh has something special brewing in the Bay area. If San Fran doesn't win this game, I expect them to cover...New Orleans 24, San Francisco 27
Denver @ New England (-13.5) - SAT 8:00PM - CBS
Sorry folks, Tebowmania will be coming to an end today. Last week's performance by Tim Tebow was All-World and the kind of stuff legends are made of, but he is not going into Foxboro and beating the Patriots. I understand the Steelers are one of the top defenses in the league and the Pats have one of the worst defensive squads giving up 411ypg and a league worst 294ypg in the air, but the element of surprise is gone. The only prayer Denver has rests on the shoulders of their defense. The key for Denver will be for Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller to pressure Tom Brady. Denver has kept 6 of their last 11 opponents to 15 points or less, but as we saw in their last matchup at Mile High Stadium, Mr. Brady found a way to shred Denver's defense and will do so again. It also doesn't hurt the Pats will have Josh McDaniels back on their side. The Patriots will be prepared for the gimmicks and will move on to the next round...Denver 24, New England 38
Houston @ Baltimore (-7.5) - SUN 1:00PM - CBS
The pressure is on Joe Flacco. The Ravens could easily end up in the Super Bowl or lose this weekend. This is an incredibly balanced match up with both teams averaging 24ppg and defenses that are each giving up just under 290ypg and 17ppg. The Texans came out last week and impressed. TJ Yates has been good enough to win thanks to the second best running game in the league led by Arian Foster and the best overall defense in the league. However, they have to travel to Baltimore where the Ravens are 8-0 at home and rookie QBs don't typically fair so well. Flacco has averaged 239 passing yards and thrown for 15 TDs versus 6 INTs in the team's 12 wins, while averaging 200 yards passing and throwing just 5 TDs versus 6 INTs in their four losses. The Ravens have Ray Rice and the third best defense in the league, but Flacco needs to step up if Baltimore wants to keep this thing going. Baltimore is a different team at home and will likely win, but Houston keeps it close and covers...Houston 17, Baltimore 21
New York Giants @ Green Bay (-7.5) - SUN 4:30PM - FOX
The Giants displayed a lot of confidence this week in the media, which only adds to Green Bay's motivation after the shocking and sudden death of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin's son, Michael Philbin. Greg Jennings also made it clear after the Giants win over the Falcons via Twitter that the Packers haven't forgotten about their playoff loss at home to the Giants in January '08. However, the Giants know they should have won against the Packers earlier this year, and they know they are one of the best teams in football right now. The Giants defensive and offensive lines are playing extremely well, which is contributing to tons of pressure on opposing QBs and the ability to run the ball on offense. Aaron Rodgers has had only one game to show what he's made of since losing to KC, but it was against an emotionally defeated Chicago Bears team. Rodgers will appreciate having Greg Jennings back in the lineup, but he will have his day cut out for him as the Giants' defensive line will cause havoc. I'm confident the Packers Achilles' heel will be their defense. The Giants' running game is dead last in the league, but when they run for over 100yds, they win. Aaron Rodgers might be the AP Athlete of the Year, but Eli(te) Manning is 'trending' and I like his chances against the worst defense in the league...New York Giants 38, Green Bay 35
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