Happy Thanksgiving folks. We are in for a real treat this turkey day with the best lineup of games I remember in a long time. Tough picks though, but if you must wager, here are our picks for the week:
Green Bay @ Detroit (+6.0) - THU 12:30PM FOX
This is probably the toughest Thanksgiving Day game to pick. I genuinely believe Schwartz has lost a bit of respect from his players after the post-game incident with Jim Harbaugh last month, but his team showed me a lot last week. To come back from a 24-7 deficit before ultimately winning 49-35 largely without Megatron says a lot about the Lions. Look for Kevin Smith and his fresh legs to have another big game and help round out the Lions offense. Green Bay continues to win with one of the top offenses in the league averaging over 405ypg led by top rated Aaron Rodgers (128.8 QB Rating). Bob Costas mentioned this past Sunday night that it was 49 years ago when the Lions beat an undefeated Packers team on Thanksgiving Day before that same Packers team went on to win the Super Bowl. Deja vu? I'm not so sure. I expect Ford Field to be rockin’ on Thursday and Green Bay to squeak out a close win. I’m taking the Lions ATS...Green Bay 35, Detroit 31
Miami @ Dallas (-7.0) - THU 4:15PM - CBS
I expect Miami to keep rolling this Thursday in Dallas. After losing so many close games, the team had a free pass to fold. Instead, they've decided to show up in the back half of the season playing good football. This team has serious character led by Matt Moore and Reggie Bush stringing together a few solid games (maybe because Kim Kardashian is back on the market?). Sure, Miami’s three game winning streak has come against weak opponents in KC, Washington, Buffalo, but realize the Cowboys three game winning streak is against two of the same opponents in Washington and Buffalo, in addition to Seattle. As the Cowboys gain on the division lead in the NFC East, more people are jumping on the bandwagon. Don’t lose sight of who the ‘Boys have beaten this year though, they only have one quality win in San Fran. The Dolphins are clearly improving and Matt Moore has become a leader. It’s unlikely Moore’s play will keep Miami from exploring QB options in next year’s draft, but Moore has finally proven he can read defenses and make the right decisions with the ball. Tony Romo’s play is sparodic and the Dolphins have the fourth best run defense in the league allowing just 93ypg. I expect the Dolphins to cover on Thursday with a good chance of taking their 3-1 record against Dallas on Thanksgiving day to 4-1...Miami 28, Dallas 27
San Francisco @ Baltimore (-3.0) - THU 8:20PM - NFL
This game reminds me of the Thanksgiving night game a few years ago when Kurt Warner's Arizona Cardinals traveled to Philadelphia and completely fell down when clinching the division was on the line. It's unfortunate Jim Harbaugh is already complaining about the unfair shake his 49ers are getting with a short week and having to fly to the east coast, but he has a point. Despite Baltimore’s random losses to Seattle and Jacksonville, the Ravens are a solid team with the luxury of playing at home ahead of Thursday’s game. Don’t underestimate the advantage this gives Baltimore, much like it did Philly a few years back. I think it's going to be a great game between two top defenses and two offenses that are each averaging 25.6ppg. San Fran is 9-0 ATS this year and the better overall team on both sides of the ball, but in the first NFL game where opposing head coaches are brothers, I don’t expect big brother John to let little bro Jim come away with a victory...San Francisco 17, Baltimore 21
No comments:
Post a Comment